Just eight weeks ago when the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery scolded him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his performances were a sign or the source of the side's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. When Rogers drilled in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. History, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, even as the positive results have accumulated.
According to statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side who have put together ten consecutive victories, they appear curiously susceptible – yet currently the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired in London, and again versus Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, Manchester United managed more shots and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival the club must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting the ball into the top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent could transform into the performer he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a title charge while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. As Rogers faced the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.
