Daily Killings in Mexico Decline Over a Third Under President Sheinbaum, As per Official Figures

The average figure of daily homicides each month in the country has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to new official statistics. However, security analysts have advised that murder numbers might not point to enhanced national stability.

Notable Drop in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an average of nearly 55 homicides a day in last November as opposed to roughly 87 when Sheinbaum took the leadership in September. This data was shared by the chief of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that we have seen in these past months is remarkably notable,” Sheinbaum said, adding that in November the lowest number of murders were registered for any November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Official Strategy

Fierce cartel rivalries, coupled with the administration's highly militarised efforts to confront the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder numbers rise sharply in recent times. The figure hit a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics office.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate more than four times greater than the US. However, murders have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has attributed her national security strategy for an apparently sharper decline in killings this year.

At a media briefing in August, the Mexican leader said: “We have a plan, there is monitoring of the plan, and we have specific monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The main pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety plan encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Greater collaboration between government agencies.

Expert Warnings and Data Concerns

But, security analysts cautioned that focusing solely on homicide statistics to draw a conclusion of pacification was problematic. This is notably true considering the increase in different crimes such as abductions.

“That would be excellent news if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just look at the homicide data and think: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

Per the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year compared with the identical period last year. Yet, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some states have surged by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not reliable for gauging the reality of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the capacity or the will to correctly identify and classify bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month averages of everyday homicides was similarly problematic because it may mask days when there were especially spiking numbers of killings.

“Employing the daily average makes surges of violent crime less visible,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

Where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 people were detained between last October and this past November for major crimes, according to official data. Over 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s highly politically advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Anger

However despite these measures, Mexico continues to be plagued by high bloodshed, with several states in the midst of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Last month there was a high-profile killing of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the past 12 months.

Weeks after, many thousands of protesters took to the streets in Mexico City and across the nation to voice their outrage at corruption and drug violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a way to create a story of safety. Politically it’s extremely potent, from a social perspective it’s very problematic,” the analyst remarked.